Work in Progress:
"Public Pensions and the Elasticity of Elderly Labor Force Participation: Evidence from the Railroad Retirement Act” (Job Market Paper)
Abstract
This paper estimates the elasticity of elderly labor force nonparticipation with respect to public pensions in the late 1930’s, helping to reconcile sharply declining estimates over the 20th century. The Railroad Retirement Acts (RRA) of 1934-1937 federalized private pension systems with a system comparable to Social Security, expanding eligibility and allowing for immediate annuitized retirement under substantially higher benefits. Using linked Census records between 1920-1930 and 1930-1940, I compare labor force participation a decade after measuring worker’s industries. To identify the effect of the RRA on retirement, my triple-differences design compares railroad to other industrial pension-covered workers, between 1930 and 1940, for pension-eligible (65) and ineligible (<65) ages. Railroad workers differentially exited only at ages 65 plus, accounting for roughly 5% of the 1930-1940 aggregate labor force participation decline ages 65-69 and 2% ages 70-75. To estimate the elasticity, I exploit the new progressivity of benefits under the RRA, which generates variation in percent increase in benefits along the wage profile, combined with industrial and cohort comparisons. Crucially, coefficients are estimated only from variation in benefit changes among workers with similar wages. My estimate of roughly .1 is lower than estimates from earlier or comparable time periods, but quite similar to modern estimates from Social Security, suggesting the importance of the particular public pension and marginal group affected.
“The Expansion of Social Security and the Decline of Elderly Public Assistance” (Joint with Daniel Fetter)
Abstract
Among the most consequential changes in the American economy over the 20th century was the growth of the government’s role in providing social insurance and transfers, especially to the elderly. A central element of this growth was a change in the level of government that administered and funded transfers. We investigate the expansion of the nationally-administered Old Age and Survivors Insurance (commonly known as Social Security) and its role in the decline of the state-administered Old Age Assistance (OAA) program from the 1940s through the 1970s. We document the degree to which Social Security crowded out OAA and the ways in which states responded to its expansion.
“Who Benefits from Federal Welfare Spending? Evidence from the Introduction of Progressive Cost Sharing” (Joint with Andrew Goodman-Bacon)
Abstract
In 1958 the federal government began to provide more generous financial matching for welfare programs in poorer states than in richer ones. The goal was to encourage the least generous states to pay higher benefits. We evaluate the effect of this reform on benefits, on state savings, and other state tax/spending policies.
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"Public Pensions and the Elasticity of Elderly Labor Force Participation: Evidence from the Railroad Retirement Act” (Job Market Paper)
Abstract
This paper estimates the elasticity of elderly labor force nonparticipation with respect to public pensions in the late 1930’s, helping to reconcile sharply declining estimates over the 20th century. The Railroad Retirement Acts (RRA) of 1934-1937 federalized private pension systems with a system comparable to Social Security, expanding eligibility and allowing for immediate annuitized retirement under substantially higher benefits. Using linked Census records between 1920-1930 and 1930-1940, I compare labor force participation a decade after measuring worker’s industries. To identify the effect of the RRA on retirement, my triple-differences design compares railroad to other industrial pension-covered workers, between 1930 and 1940, for pension-eligible (65) and ineligible (<65) ages. Railroad workers differentially exited only at ages 65 plus, accounting for roughly 5% of the 1930-1940 aggregate labor force participation decline ages 65-69 and 2% ages 70-75. To estimate the elasticity, I exploit the new progressivity of benefits under the RRA, which generates variation in percent increase in benefits along the wage profile, combined with industrial and cohort comparisons. Crucially, coefficients are estimated only from variation in benefit changes among workers with similar wages. My estimate of roughly .1 is lower than estimates from earlier or comparable time periods, but quite similar to modern estimates from Social Security, suggesting the importance of the particular public pension and marginal group affected.
“The Expansion of Social Security and the Decline of Elderly Public Assistance” (Joint with Daniel Fetter)
Abstract
Among the most consequential changes in the American economy over the 20th century was the growth of the government’s role in providing social insurance and transfers, especially to the elderly. A central element of this growth was a change in the level of government that administered and funded transfers. We investigate the expansion of the nationally-administered Old Age and Survivors Insurance (commonly known as Social Security) and its role in the decline of the state-administered Old Age Assistance (OAA) program from the 1940s through the 1970s. We document the degree to which Social Security crowded out OAA and the ways in which states responded to its expansion.
“Who Benefits from Federal Welfare Spending? Evidence from the Introduction of Progressive Cost Sharing” (Joint with Andrew Goodman-Bacon)
Abstract
In 1958 the federal government began to provide more generous financial matching for welfare programs in poorer states than in richer ones. The goal was to encourage the least generous states to pay higher benefits. We evaluate the effect of this reform on benefits, on state savings, and other state tax/spending policies.
Social Media